Global risk factors continue to provide significant tailwind...

Global risk factors continue to provide significant tailwinds for precious metals. Persistent geopolitical tensions, reminiscent of past flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz, are fueling a sustained flight-to-safety narrative among international investors. This is compounded by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which is creating volatility in emerging market currencies. Consequently, the US dollar remains the primary beneficiary of risk-off sentiment, exerting consistent pressure on currencies like the Indonesian Rupiah and reinforcing gold's timeless role as a premier safe-haven asset. The domestic landscape is dominated by the theme of wealth preservation against chronic Rupiah depreciation. The historical data shows a clear trend of currency weakness, which erodes the purchasing power of local savings. This has fueled structural, long-term demand for physical gold among Indonesian investors, as evidenced by soaring profits for local producers and retailers like Hartadinata Abadi. While a weaker Rupiah may offer some benefits to the trade balance, it simultaneously weighs on economic growth and consumer confidence, making gold an essential tool for hedging against both currency and domestic economic risk. Our outlook for gold, particularly when priced in Rupiah, remains unequivocally bullish. The confluence of global uncertainty and domestic currency pressures creates a powerful incentive for continued accumulation. We advise clients to maintain or increase their allocation to physical bullion as a core strategic holding. Given the strong underlying demand and tight physical supply, we anticipate that gold will not only preserve wealth but will continue to outperform IDR-denominated assets in the medium to long term.